Baltensperger Tobias, Füchslin Rudolf, Krütli Pius, Lygeros John

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The recently announced Energy Union by the European Commission is the most recent step in a series of developments aiming at integrating the European Union’s (EU) gas markets in order to increase social welfare and security of gas supply. Based on simulations with a spatial partial equilibrium model, this paper analyzes the changes in consumption, prices, and social welfare up to 2022 induced by the infrastructure expansions planned for this period. It finds that wholesale prices decrease slightly and converge at Western European levels, the potential of suppliers to exert market power decreases significantly, particularly in the Baltic countries and Finland which are the most exposed countries today, and consumer surplus increases by 15.9% in the EU

Available at: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1512.05343&r=ene