Henderson James and Grushevenko Ekaterina

This paper, carried out as a joint piece of research by OIES and ERI RAS (the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences) assesses the prospects for Russian oil production to 2020 and beyond, and suggests that the history of steady growth seen over the past decade is set to continue. Brownfield decline is being actively managed, a portfolio of greenfields has and is being developed which can more than compensate for the decline in mature assets and in the longer-term regions such as the offshore, East Siberia and tight oil offer significant upside. The recent agreement to cut overall production in H1 2016 will create a short-term brake on growth, but the average for 2017 should still be almost 2% higher than for 2016. Meanwhile, sanctions are continuing to affect the use of technology for some of Russia’s harder to develop reserves. Nevertheless, our analysis on both a corporate and regional level suggests that, barring another collapse in the oil price or a further tightening of sanctions, the outlook for Russian oil production over the next few years remains positive.

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