Sen Anupama

India is once again in the spotlight as a potential future growth market for gas, as demand elsewhere in the OECD and non-OECD recedes or grows increasingly uncertain. Yet, the view on gas from within India has been in constant flux over the last decade, with no realistic vision on its role in the energy mix. But in recent months, there has been an upsurge in India’s consumption of imported LNG – driven largely by the fertilisers, city gas and industry sectors – prompting a revival in policy activity around the reconsideration of gas’s role in the energy mix. At the same time, India has embarked on one of the developing world’s most ambitious targets, specifically to increase its renewables installed capacity by more than threefold (to 175 GW) by 2022, as part of a series of domestic policy targets made alongside its firm international commitments following its ratification of the COP21 agreement. This paper disentangles the short-term developments and dynamics of demand in the main consuming sectors (power, fertilisers, industry and city gas), from the influence of longer-term determinants (prices, renewables policy, coal policy and pollution issues, and infrastructure) as enablers or constraints on the future outlook for gas.

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