Wang Jianlang and others

China is vigorously promoting the development of its unconventional gas resources because natural gas is viewed as a lower-carbon energy source and because China has relatively little conventional natural gas supply. This paper evaluates  how much unconventional gas might be available based on an analysis of technically recoverable resources for three types of unconventional gas resources: shale gas, coalbed methane and tight gas. It develops three alternative scenarios of how this extraction might proceed, using the Geologic Resources Supply Demand Model. The medium scenario shows a resource peak of 176.1 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2068. Depending on economic conditions and advance in extraction techniques, production could vary greatly from this. Even if the extremely optimistic scenario is achieved, China’s total gas production will only be sufficient to meet China’s lowest demand forecast and significant amounts of natural gas imports are likely to be needed.